Alternative Futures (Scenarios)

This baseline scenario looks at how today’s transportation network of roads and public transportation services will perform with the projected 2050 population and employment data. This scenario is not realistic, but it is useful to demonstrate existing and potential problems in the transportation network and serves as a baseline to compare other scenarios.

• Land Use – 2055 population and employment, distributed based on the current land use plans and policies of the local jurisdictions and counties.

• Transportation – Only those facilities and services that already exist or have firmly committed funding – called the “existing and committed” transportation network.

This scenario distributes 2055 forecasted population and employment based on current land use plans and policies. It adds projects identified in recent local and regional transportation plan updates and studies. All are able to be funded from existing revenue sources along with the rules tied to those sources.

This scenario includes all transportation projects in the baseline (Deficiency & Needs) scenario, and adds projects identified in recent local and regional transportation plan updates and studies. All are able to be funded from existing revenue sources along with the rules tied to those sources.

• Land Use – 2055 population and employment, distributed based on the current land use plans and policies of the local jurisdictions and counties.

• Transportation – Current transportation network, plus any facilities and services in existing long-range transportation plans funded by existing revenue levels and policy rules.

Note:  In this scenario, the majority of state and federal funding is directed to roadway improvements, but local tax revenues fund transit service and infrastructure improvements.

This scenario increases the intensity and mix of land uses at major employment hubs and travel corridors. It adds roads and transit along corridors linking areas with concentrations of minority, low-income, and zero-car households to jobs. It also assumes additional transportation funding for transit facilities, services, and a few roadway improvements. It would require changes by state partners in addition to actions that can be taken by the MPOs and their local member jurisdictions across the Triangle.

This scenario increases the intensity and mix of land uses at major employment hubs and travel corridors. It adds roads and transit along corridors linking areas with concentrations of minority, low-income, and zero-car households to jobs. It also assumes additional transportation funding for transit facilities, services, and a few roadway improvements. It would require changes by state partners in addition to actions that can be taken by the MPOs and their local member jurisdictions across the Triangle.

• Land Use – 2055 population and employment, with increased intensity and mix of uses at major employment hubs and multimodal corridors.

• Transportation – Current transportation network and existing long-range transportation plans, plus additional roadway and transit along corridors linking areas with concentrations of minority, low-income, and zero-car households to jobs.

Note: In this scenario, there is additional state transportation funding, and it is assumed that a larger proportion of the overall state and federal funding is available for BRT and Regional Rail.

This scenario increases the intensity and mix of land uses at major employment hubs and travel corridors, and works to link minority, low-income, and zero-car households to jobs. This scenario also has the largest increase of biking and walking facilities, and provides transit services in major commuting corridors. In addition to the funding changes in the Shared Leadership scenario, housing affordability and transportation funding actions by a range of partners would be necessary.

This scenario increases the intensity and mix of land uses at major employment hubs and travel corridors, and works to link minority, low-income, and zero-car households to jobs. It also has the largest increase of biking and walking facilities, and provides transit services in major commuting corridors. It would involve both housing affordability and transportation funding actions by a range of partners, in addition to the state funding in the Shared Leadership scenario.

• Land Use – 2050 population and employment, with increased intensity and mix of land use at major employment hubs, multimodal corridors and additional affordable housing locations.

• Transportation – Current transportation network and some highway projects in existing long-range transportation plans, plus additional transit, bicycle and pedestrian projects that can be funded by additional state revenue and local funding.

NOTE:  A larger proportion of the overall state and federal funding is available for bus transit, BRT, rail transit, and bicycle and pedestrian facilities, and it is assumed that a larger proportion of residential and employment development occurs in the corridors served by those modes.