The public comment phase for the selection of a Preferred Scenario concluded on August 10th.
Following community engagement during April and May of 2025, the CAMPO and TWTPO (Executive) Boards approved moving forward in the MTP development process by selecting the All-Together Scenario as the Preferred Scenario. The Preferred will now be analyzed through additional modelling and data analysis, consisting of the primary activity of this phase: FISCAL FEASIBILITY.
What is the Preferred Scenario?
The scenario moving forward is the region’s most ambitious scenario, which was the “All Together” scenario during the previous, Alternatives Analysis Phase, of the Destination 2055 development. It is based on future development and land use that is more concentrated and dense. In the Preferred Scenario:
- Future transportation investments will be prioritized based on increasing connections to activity centers,
- Key corridors are designated for future mobility hubs and frequent transit services,
- Additional emphasis is placed on increasing transportation choices around affordable housing.
- It also requires added flexibility in state revenue sources. This alternative scenario further relies on increased local tax revenues in order to fund additional transit, active transportation, and complete street investments as outlined in the Complete Communities mobility investment foundation.
Land Use Assumptions
The future population and employment growth allocation in the region that will impact the transportation network is based on the future development patterns (densities) identified in adopted local land use plans with the following modifications
- Anchor institutions (universities) – increased development nearby
- Mobility hubs- more intense, mixed-use development in ~2 dozen places; largely at previously identified “activity centers”
- Frequent transit corridors with added density on developable parcels on those corridors
- Affordable housing opportunity sites – more affordable housing projects on undeveloped public land in areas near activity centers
Was community input used to select the Preferred Scenario?
YES! Please visit the Alternative Futures webpage for the community engagement summary and overview for how it influenced the CAMPO & TWTPO (Executive) Boards’ selection of the Preferred Scenario.
Fiscal Feasibility
In the context of a Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP), fiscal feasibility (or fiscal constraint) refers to the requirement that the plan must demonstrate that proposed projects and programs can be implemented using available or reasonably expected revenues. In essence, fiscal feasibility ensures that the MTP is grounded in reality and that the transportation projects outlined are achievable with the projected funding.
This means…
- The MTP’s project list and programs must be financially sound and within the community’s financial means
- The anticipated funding for the projects must be sufficient to cover the projected costs.
- MPOs must create fiscally constrained MTPs and Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs – 10 year plans), ensuring the plan has a budget with noted funding sources to support proposed improvements. This helps in creating more realistic project lists rather than simply wish lists.
- The projection of available funding needs to be based on reasonable assumptions and guidance from relevant authorities, such as the FHWA.
- The plan should include sufficient financial information to show that projects can be implemented using committed, available, or reasonably available federal, state, local, and private revenues.
How will these enhancements be paid for?
Current transportation revenue sources will not produce enough to finance the multimodal transportation projects that are considered essential in the Triangle, and that are included in the Preferred Alternative. During this phase, MPO staff analyze the projects and programs that can be delivered under current funding levels, and what could reasonably be presumed as additional revenue for transportation investments over the next 30 years. The MPO (Executive) Boards will then approve a slate of future revenue assumptions that can be used to develop the Draft Destination 2055 plan.
Of critical importance, most funding sources are dedicated to specific transportation modes. For example, both federal and local public transportation sources are dedicated to bus/rail only, meaning they could not be used for unrelated roadway or bicycle and pedestrian improvements. The same is typically true for revenues for roadway improvements.
Revenue Sources – Current and Potential New examples
Revenue Sources – Current examples:
- NCDOT’s Strategic Transportation Investment (STI) process for roadways, some transit (image below)
- Local sales tax in Durham, Orange, and Wake Counties – transit
- Federal Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG) program – roadways, transit, bike/ped (image below)
- Federal Capital Investment Grants (help fund BRT projects) – transit/rail
- Federal Congestion Mitigation & Air Quality funds (CMAQ) – roadways
- Federal Transportation Alternative Program (TAP) funds – typically bike/ped, disability accessibility improvements, and others
- Toll funding directly tied to toll road projects
- Bonds – local capital transportation projects (must be approved by voters and repaid)
Revenue Sources – New EXAMPLES:
- Local Sales Tax – increased by 1/2 – 2 cents* (* would require N.C. General Assembly action)
- Highway Use Tax increase of 2%
- State sales tax increase (dedicated to transportation) while reducing Motor Fuels Tax
- Fees – Mileage-based user fees, vehicle registration, rental cars, electric and hybrid vehicles, travel/tourism, road impact fee for e-commerce deliveries, etc.
- Local Property Tax dedicated to transportation
PERFORMANCE SCORECARD OF PREFERRED SCENARIO
What policies are included in the Preferred Alternative?
In order to meet approved goals for Destination 2055, some must be achieved through policies that guide both the prioritization of projects as well as certain aspects must be included in future projects. For example:
- Complete Streets – North Carolina and the Triangle’s MPOs have all adopted Complete Streets policies. These policies help increase investments in bicycle, pedestrian, and transit infrastructure, along with environmental sustainability.
- Safety – North Carolina and the Triangle’s MPOs have all approved Safety Plans to increase investments in creating safer travel for all in a variety of ways, from technology enhancements to intersection improvements that benefit all modes of travel. This also includes Safe Routes to Schools.
What’s Next?
In the early Fall, the Draft Projects & Programs for Destination 2055 will be released for additional public feedback. At that time, the focus will be on the results of the fiscal analysis and how future transportation investments are categorized into “decade horizons” – mode based lists of projects to accomplish in the next 10, 20, 30 years, and beyond.